The Future of Nigeria’s Agriculture: From Subsistence to Over-Commercialization

By Ajenifuja Ahmed

Over 70% of Nigerians are involved in agriculture, predominantly at a subsistence level, focusing on growing food for personal use rather than for commercial sale. However, the sector is undergoing a significant transformation as subsistence farming increasingly merges with commercial practices. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), agriculture sector saw a modest growth of 0.18%, a significant recovery from the -0.90% contraction experienced in the first quarter of 2023. The industry sector also improved, with a 2.19% growth compared to the 0.31% recorded in the first quarter of 2023. Overall, the aggregate GDP for the first quarter of 2024 stood at N58,855,142.27 million in nominal terms, up from N51,242,151.21 million in the same period in 2023, marking a year-on-year nominal growth of 14.86%.

This shift, while promising, has introduced a new set of challenges—particularly the over-commercialization of agriculture. As Nigeria’s agriculture has become more commercialized, several issues have emerged, affecting farmers and the sector as a whole:

1. Disruption of Traditional Farming: The commercial interests push farmers to prioritize high-value cash crops over staple foods. This shift has led to a disruption of established practices and has often undermined local food security. Farmers who once grew crops for family consumption are now pressured to produce for markets, sometimes at the expense of essential staples.

Providing incentives for farmers to cultivate staple foods can help maintain food security. Educational programs should emphasize the importance of traditional farming methods alongside modern practices to ensure a sustainable approach to agriculture.

• Resource Inequality: The rise of commercial agriculture has led to a concentration of resources and support among large-scale agribusinesses. Smallholder farmers, who traditionally formed the backbone of the sector, find themselves sidelined. In many cases, commercial farmers are prioritized in the provision of tools (mechanized) and farm inputs, leaving smallholder farmers stranded and desperate. This inequality has widened the divide between large commercial operations and subsistence farmers, making it difficult for smaller operations to thrive.

While systems for resource distribution have been established, they need to be restructured to ensure that smallholder farmers are prioritized. This can include providing subsidies for mechanized tools, ensuring access to quality seeds and fertilizers, and offering training programs to enhance their farming techniques. Additionally, strengthening cooperatives can help small farmers pool resources, share knowledge, and access larger markets. By prioritizing these measures, we can create a more equitable and supportive environment for smallholder farmers, ensuring their success and sustainability in the agricultural sector.

• Rising Production Costs: The commercial push has brought increased production costs, driven by the need for advanced technologies and higher-quality inputs. Many smallholder farmers struggle with these costs, leading to financial strain and debt. The expectation of higher returns from commercial farming has not always materialized, leaving many farmers in a precarious financial situation.

Provide stringent checks and balances for existing financial support programs that provide low-interest loans and grants to smallholder farmers. Investing in affordable and appropriate technology tailored to small-scale farming can also reduce costs. Government and private sector partnerships should focus on reducing input costs through bulk purchasing and distribution networks.

• Environmental Degradation: The focus on maximizing profits through commercial agriculture has led to environmental challenges. Large-scale monoculture farming has resulted in soil degradation, deforestation, and loss of biodiversity. These practices, driven by the quest for higher yields and profits, have compromised the long-term health of the land and ecosystems.

Promote sustainable farming practices that prioritize soil health and biodiversity. Initiatives like agroforestry, crop rotation, and organic farming should be encouraged. Policies should also enforce regulations against deforestation and land degradation while providing support for land restoration projects.

• Market Instability: Farmers have increasingly found themselves at the mercy of volatile global markets. The focus on cash crops has made them vulnerable to price fluctuations, impacting their income stability. This dependency on international markets has introduced an element of uncertainty, with global economic shifts affecting local farmers’ livelihoods. A practical example of this is the government’s recent launch of a 150-day duty-free import window for maize, rice, wheat, and other staples. While this initiative is commendable as it aims to boost food availability and control prices, the timing at the start of the farming season has created unhealthy competition. Many smallholder farmers, who had collected loans to expand their subsistence farming into semi-commercial operations, suddenly faced competition from cheaper imported goods.

This influx of imports at a critical time undermined the local farmers’ efforts and investments, making it harder for them to sell their produce at profitable prices and repay their loans. Between 2016 and 2019, Nigeria’s agricultural imports soared to N3.35 trillion, overshadowing agricultural exports of N803 billion. This imbalance highlights the sector’s struggle to meet domestic demands despite the commercial focus.

Strengthen local markets to reduce dependency on global markets. Establish price stabilization mechanisms to protect farmers from extreme market volatility. The recent government’s 150-day duty-free import window for maize, rice, wheat, and other staples is commendable. However, the timing at the start of the farming season created unhealthy competition. Future policies should consider the farming calendar to avoid undermining local farmers’ efforts. Supporting local farmers through marketing cooperatives can also help stabilize prices and ensure fair returns.

As a well-meaning Nigerian farmer, food merchant, and consultant, I commend President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration for its commitment to renewing the hope of Nigerians. The administration has shown that it listens to the people, and it is evident in its actions. To address the pressing issue of food insecurity, which threatens over 26 million people as of 2024, it is crucial to focus on subsistence farming. Imagine if 90% of Nigerians cultivated selected portions of the 34 million hectares of arable lands in Nigeria for subsistence. The excess produce could be traded, potentially lowering food prices significantly. The focus should remain on empowering smallholder farmers, promoting sustainable practices, and creating a balanced agricultural system that benefits all Nigerians. Through these efforts, we can build a resilient agricultural sector capable of feeding the nation and driving economic growth.